Draft Strategy | ChaceTheData

Round 1: The 1.01 and 1.02

Targets

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB · Bijan Robinson, RB

As defenses have continued to deploy two deep safeties to limit explosive pass plays, the league-wide called run rate has increased in every season since 2023, and reached an eight-year high in 2025. Last season, even in PPR leagues, four of the top five non-QB fantasy scorers were running backs: Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Puka Nacua, Jonathan Taylor, and Jahmyr Gibbs.

The 1.01 and 1.02 is really a 1A/1B situation, and both are great slots to draft from this season. Sitting atop my board is Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. Both Gibbs and Robinson had their touchdown vulture running mates from 2025 depart in David Montgomery and Tyler Allgeier. Both departures are huge, but Montgomery's is even more impactful for Gibbs. Across their first three seasons in the league, Gibbs has never out touched Robinson, but he has out produced him in fantasy points per touch in every season. This is the season Gibbs finally out touches Robinson, and he is the pick at 1.01.

Key Insight

Offensive environment matters a lot. Since 2020, the RB1 in fantasy has been a runaway from the rest of the pack, averaging 52.1 more points than the next closest RB. Over those six seasons, the RB1 has outscored the RB2 by at least 24 points in every single season. Getting the overall RB1 correct is massive, and there is a stat to help identify who is most likely to take the crown: offensive touchdown drive rate. The last six RB1s in fantasy have been on offenses that ranked 6th on average in touchdown drive rate, and none ranked lower than 14th (4th, 11th, 14th, 1st, 1st, 6th). Across Robinson's three seasons in Atlanta, the Falcons have ranked 27th, 13th, and 25th in that metric. Across Gibbs' three seasons in Detroit, the Lions have ranked 3rd, 1st, and 5th. Looking ahead to 2026, Gibbs is in a much better offense and is a better bet to be the RB1 in fantasy. With that said, Robinson is still an incredible pick at the 1.02.

The 2-3 Turn

Targets

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Key Insight

The 4-5 Turn

Targets

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The 6-7 Turn

Targets

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