Expected Fantasy Points
What players were expected to score, given their opportunity.
Expected Fantasy Points calculates whether a player is outperforming, or underperforming, their role and opportunity.
Why that player is outperforming or underperforming is up for interpretation.
Are all out-performers sell-highs? No.
Are all under-performers buy-lows? No.
Is it shocking that Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are outperforming expected production? No! They're phenomenal football players.
Is it shocking that Quentin Johnston and JK Dobbins are underperforming relative to expected production? No…
xFP can also be incredibly helpful to see the value of a player's role. Ashton Jeanty has the 3rd-most xFP among RBs through 4 weeks! On the other hand, Trevor Lawrence ranks 22nd among QBs in xFP because the Jaguars haven't been pushed at all yet.